The analyst that returns the work.
Halcyon reads filings, sizes markets, builds the model, and brings back sourced output. Built for private investors, small funds, and patient capital. English, Japanese, and Portuguese.
Built for unhurried, analyst-grade research.
Reads, computes, cites. Every figure is traceable to a primary source.
Reads what you would not have time for
Thousands of pages of filings, transcripts, and disclosures, extracted into the rows and columns you actually need.
Sizes with stated assumptions
Bottom-up TAM, SAM, and SOM with every input written down. Nothing magicked, nothing borrowed.
Models you can audit on a quiet desk
DCF, segment walks, comparables. Every cell traces back to a citation a colleague can verify.
One workflow across two markets
Japanese securities filings, US SEC documents. Same agent, one structured output, no glue code.
Industry and Market Research
TAM, SAM, SOM, segment trends, and the data behind them — written down.
Estimate the TAM, SAM, and SOM for AI-native legal research tools, bottom-up. Lawyer count by firm size, current research-tooling spend per seat, addressable share for AI-native solutions. State every assumption.
CAGR pressureA 20 percent CAGR through 2030 is consensus for vertical SaaS in Japan. Pressure-test with three supply-side and three demand-side inputs. What would have to be true?
Sub-segment heatWithin fintech, name three sub-segments with the strongest 12-month momentum across funding, user growth, and regulatory tone. One short paragraph each.
Hype vs moatMap 8 generative AI sub-categories on a 2x2 of hype level versus defensible moat. Justify each placement with one named example.
AdjacenciesA small SaaS sells inventory software to independent retailers. List 5 adjacent verticals with high overlap in buyer job-to-be-done and the criteria that would justify each move.
Source rankingI am sizing the global corporate language-learning market. Rank the 5 most credible primary sources, what each is best for, and where they disagree.
Company Research
Financial modeling, business-model decomposition, KPI walks.
Draft a conservative 5-year DCF for Sony Group at current consensus. State WACC, terminal growth, and the two sensitivities that matter most. Flag every input treated as assumption.
Margin walkToyota's operating margin moved over the last 3 fiscal years. Decompose the walk by segment, FX, price/mix, and one-time items based on their MD&A.
Quality screenBuild a quality screen for global mid caps: ROE above 15 percent, FCF margin above 12 percent, Net debt / EBITDA below 1.5x, 5-year revenue CAGR above 8 percent. Output SQL-style criteria and 3 names this captures.
Unit economicsReconstruct SaaS unit economics from a public disclosure: 180 million ARR, 8,000 customers, 70 million S&M, 88 percent gross retention. Compute CAC, payback, LTV/CAC, and the sensitivity to retention.
Buyback rankAmong TOPIX 100 companies that announced buybacks in the past 12 months, rank the top 5 by buyback yield, completion rate, and likely EPS accretion.
Patient bearWrite the most thoughtful 3-point bear case for Nintendo at current valuation. The kind a long-term holder would want a friend to point out.
Private and Public Capital Markets
Comparables, pricing teardowns, positioning maps, and competitive intelligence.
Build a 12-row feature matrix comparing Shopify, BigCommerce, and Adobe Commerce on checkout, payments, B2B, headless, and pricing. Flag categories where vendor documentation disagrees.
Pricing teardownTake apart the published pricing of 5 observability vendors: Datadog, New Relic, Splunk, Grafana Cloud, Honeycomb. Compare list pricing, realistic enterprise economics, and overage exposure.
Positioning mapPlot 8 AI coding assistants on a 2x2 of target buyer (indie to enterprise) and interface (chat to agent). Briefly justify each placement.
Move analysisA competitor just announced an agentic product line. Reverse-engineer the strategic intent from the press release and outline 3 counter-moves for a competing product team.
Comps tableBuild a comparables table for 6 listed Japanese specialty retailers: EV/EBITDA, EV/Sales, ROIC, and same-store sales growth. Note one structural reason for each outlier.
WTP surfaceA small software company is repricing its enterprise tier. Map willingness-to-pay across seats, usage, data sensitivity, and support SLA using competitor benchmarks.
Macro and Policy
Rates, FX, inflation, policy transmission, sector rotation — patiently.
Compare the latest FOMC statement to the prior one word by word. Identify hawkish and dovish shifts and map each to a likely move in rates, USD, and equity sectors.
CPI breakDecompose the latest US CPI print into goods, services ex-shelter, shelter, and energy. What does each suggest for the Fed reaction function over the next two meetings?
BoJ scenariosBuild 3 BoJ policy paths over the next 12 months: status quo, slow normalization, sudden hike. For each, project a USD/JPY range and the 3 most exposed Japanese sectors.
Curve readExplain the current shape of the US Treasury curve, what is implied for 12-month forward growth and inflation, and which historical episode it most resembles.
Rotation memoryAcross the past 4 US recessions, which equity sectors led the recovery in the first 6 months after the trough? Show base rates and one structural reason behind each.
Real rate shockIf US 10-year real rates fall 100 bps over 6 months, walk through the impact on long-duration tech, gold, EM equity, and JGBs. Keep the chain of reasoning visible.
Filings and IR
Structured extraction from primary disclosure — 10-K, S-1, annual reports, transcripts.
From the attached 10-K, extract the risk factors and rank by materiality given the company's current business mix. Quote the sentences that justify each rank.
MD&A digestSummarize the MD&A of the attached 10-K in 250 words. Capture revenue drivers, margin drivers, and forward-looking guidance, with paragraph references.
AccountingIdentify any accounting-policy changes, restatements, or critical-estimate revisions in the attached annual report. Explain what each implies for earnings quality.
Footnote digFrom the financial-statement footnotes, surface 5 items most investors miss: contingent liabilities, off-balance-sheet exposures, related-party deals, segment reclassifications, and one of your choice.
S-1 readFrom the attached S-1, extract growth metrics, cohort behavior, customer concentration, and any disclosure that quietly contradicts the headline narrative.
Earnings callFrom the attached earnings-call transcript, identify the 3 questions analysts pressed hardest, summarize management's answers, and rate answer quality 1 to 5 with one-line justifications.
How it works
You frame the question
A market sizing, a model, a filing to digest, a scenario. Any analyst-shaped ask.
It reads and computes
Pulls primary sources. Parses disclosures. Runs the spreadsheet logic. Quietly.
You receive the work
Tables, walks, citations. Auditable. Ready to read at a quiet desk.
Hand it the question. Receive the work.
Free to begin. In English, Japanese, and Portuguese.
Begin a research session